Biodiesel Featured Articles
Oilseeds World Markets and Trade Report
China's soybean imports are stagnant despite record consumption levels as production rebounds, according to the Oilseeds World Markets and Trade report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
China is expected to become slightly less dependent on foreign sources of soybeans in 2008/09 as additional domestic production is forecast to meet growing demand. This lower import demand parallels a global reduction in the demand for soybean imports due in part to high prices.
Despite slightly lower imports, total domestic consumption of soybeans continues to trend upwards. Soybean consumption is projected at a record high, up 5 percent, leading to record crush projections for meal and oil. Consumption projections for 2008 indicate record-high levels, over 5 percent above the previous year. With this, China’s record crush projections support historic highs in domestic consumption of soybean meal and soy oil.
United States’ exports to China in 2007/08 are estimated to exceed 13 million tons comprising over 35 percent of China’s import market. The United States’ participation in China’s import market in 2008/09 depends on new-crop exportable supplies.
Oilseed: Key Changes September 2008
-- Argentine soybean exports grow for 2007/08 and 2008/09. 2007/08 exports grew by 1.3 million tons to 13.5 million tons. Strong 2008 3rd quarter sales, particularly to China, and year-to-date trade point to the higher figure. 2008/09 exports are increased 1.0 million tons to 13.9 million due to the increase in supply. The Argentine 2008/09 soybean production forecast was raised 1.0 million tons to 50.5 million tons.
-- EU27 soybean imports are raised for both current and forecast year based on current trade trends. Imports for 2007/08 are raised 0.9 million tons to 15.4 million with the out-year forecast increased 0.7 million tons to 14.4 million tons. The lower out-year forecast relative to 2007/08 reflects the improved feed grains outlook for 2008/09 and increased sun and rape supplies in Eastern Europe.
-- China’s 2007/08 soybean import forecast is raised 1.1 million tons to 36.5 million tons based on projected strong 3rd quarter 2008 trade. 2008 soybean production is raised 0.5 million tons to 16.5 million
-- South American 2007/08 soybean meal exports (Brazil, Argentina, and Bolivia) are reduced a combined 0.8 million tons as import demand is expected to decline in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
-- India’s 2007/08 soybean meal exports are increased 0.7 million tons to 4.9 million tons. Out-year exports rose 0.9 million tons to 4.7 million tons due to competitive pricing and strong demand for oil meal in neighboring countries.
--Vietnam’s 2008/2009 soybean meal imports are increased 0.4 million tons to 2.6 million tons due to lowered import taxes and strong demand for feed grains.
--EU27 soybean oil imports for 2007/08 and 2008/09 are lowered as growing imports of biodiesel and improved rapeseed supplies reduce the need soybean oil. Imports are reduced 85,000 tons in 2007/08 and 230,000 tons in 2008/09.
-- Canada’s rapeseed production forecast for 2008/09 is increased 0.6 million tons to 10.4 million due to better than expected yields. This comes on the heels of a 0.8 million ton upward revision in the 2007 crop this month to 9.5 million tons.
Further Reading
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September 2008
