Biodiesel Featured Articles
World Agricultural Production - October 2008
The current credit crisis could be starting to affect farmers in Brazil with corn production down this month and, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service World Agricultural Production report, the amount of credit available to Brazilian farmers planting next year's crop is staring to be restricted.
Brazil: Summer-Corn Area Forecast to Decrease
Brazil corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 55.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 4 percent from last month and down 3.6 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 14.3 million hectares, down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.85 tons per hectare, 12 percent above the 5-year average of 3.45 tons per hectare and slightly below the 10-year trend yield of 3.90 tons per hectare.
Forecast area decreased this month based on industry reports indicating that the recent international credit crisis will reduce the amount of credit available to Brazilian farmers, who have just begun planting the 2008/09 main (summer) corn crop. In its initial forecast of 2008/09 corn area, the state statistical agency of Brazil (CONAB) indicates a 2-percent decrease in the area of summer corn.
The main (summer) corn crop accounts for nearly 70 percent of Brazil’s total corn output. The largest summer-corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul, which account for approximately 23, 16, and 15 percent, respectively. Planting in Parana is approximately 50 percent complete, and industry representatives in Parana forecast that area will decrease by approximately 5 percent from last year. Planting of Brazil’s summer-corn crop will continue until December, and harvest typically occurs between March and June. The states of Mato Grosso and Mata Grosso Do Sul are the main production regions for the second (winter, or safrinha) corn crop. Winter-corn planting will begin in February.
Yields for both summer and winter corn have been increasing steadily over the past 20 years. Although summer-corn yield is consistently higher than winter-corn yield, the yield for winter corn has been increasing at a higher rate and the difference between yields for the two crops is decreasing. (For additional information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Reduced
Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, but up 8.5 million or 65 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, down 0.5 from last month, but up 1.2 million or 10 percent from last year. The majority of Australia’s wheat growing region experienced average to below average August rainfall. September rainfall in Western Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queensland was above normal, while the remainder of the growing area was below average. In certain areas, particularly southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, the dry conditions resulted in crop losses due to moisture stress and the crop being cut for hay. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
Canada: Estimated Wheat Production Up 36 Percent Year-on-Year
The USDA estimates Canadian wheat production at 27.3 million tons in 2008/09, up 36 percent from 2007. The increase is due to higher global wheat prices, which encouraged farmers to expand area for both winter wheat (up 68 percent) and spring wheat (up 9.5 percent). Harvested area is forecast at 10.1 million hectares, up 17 percent from last year, when wet spring weather hampered the planting of spring wheat and some farmers instead planted shorter-season crops like barley and oats. For the current season, normal rainfall and temperatures throughout the growing season boosted estimated yield to 2.7 tons per hectare compared to 2.3 tons per hectare last year. (For more information, contact, Arnella Trent, 202-720-0881.)
EU Achieves Second Highest Barley Yield and Third Highest Barley Production
The USDA estimates the European Union (EU-27) barley harvest for 2008/09 at 64.4 million tons, up 1.6 million tons or 3 percent from last month and up 6.6 million tons or 11 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 14.6 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and 0.7 million from last year. Area is the highest since 1999/2000 because of high grain prices and the lifting of mandatory set-aside area. Yield is estimated at 4.42 tons per hectare, the highest since 2004/05. EU barley production consists of significant quantities of both winter and spring varieties, but it is slightly skewed towards more spring barley. Barley harvest is complete, and output was higher than expected due to favorable weather. Specifically, Spain’s 11.1 million ton barley crop was much larger than initially estimated, the result of timely, above average rainfall during spring. Meanwhile, favorable weather in France induced a record crop of 12.1 million tons with a record yield of 6.82 tons per hectare, and Germany is estimated to have produced a bumper crop of 12.1 million tons. (For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202- 690-0138.)
Burma: 2008/09 Rice Production Estimated Higher
The USDA estimates Burma rice production for 2008/09 at 9.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month but down 0.9 million or 9 percent from last year. Rice area is estimated to have increased slightly from earlier forecasts following a devastating cyclone in May. Based on field reports in recent weeks from USDA personnel traveling through the cyclone-ravaged region, it appears roughly 25 percent of rice lands in the worst-affected provinces of the Ayeyarwady delta did not get sown during the summer rainy season owing to storm damage, salt intrusion, and shortages of seed, livestock, mechanical tillers, and fertilizers. Rice yields on the remaining 75 percent of cyclone-affected lands are also in question this year, as widespread problems have been reported concerning poor seed germination, thin crop establishment, late planting, inappropriate rice varieties sown, low fertility, and increased outbreaks of pests. Typically, the summer wet season rice crop makes up roughly 70 percent of total rice production, with the other 30 percent coming from the irrigated winter dry season crop. Given the extent of cyclone damage to irrigation infrastructure in the Ayeyarwady delta, it is also uncertain whether farmers will be able to produce a normal winter rice crop this year. (For more information, please contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
Argentine Sunseed Area Lowered for 2008/09
The USDA forecasts Argentina’s sunseed area for 2008/09 at 2.5 million hectares, down 0.34 million or 12 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Yield is expected to remain at 1.76 tons per hectare, slightly less than last year’s 1.80 tons. Production is forecast at 4.4 million tons, down 0.6 million from last month and down 0.23 million or 5 percent from last year. Planted sunflower area is down from previously forecast levels due to drought extending into the optimum planting window for sunflowers in northern cropping regions and a recent decline in prices for sunseed and sunflower oil. Planting has slowed due to low soil moisture, and farmers have planted only about 13 percent of the crop to date, down 30 percent from the same date last year. Severe drought during late winter and early spring, rising costs of production and falling sunseed prices have stopped many Argentine farmers from planting sunflowers this season. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, South American Crop Analyst, 202-720-0107.)
Canada Produces Bumper Soybean Crop
The USDA estimates Canadian soybean production for 2008/09 at 3.24 million tons, up 20 percent from last year. Soybeans are Canada’s second largest oilseed crop behind rapeseed. Soybean area for 2008/09 is expected to expand to 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17 million last year. Although prices were good for all crops, many farmers switched from corn to soybeans because of lower production costs. In Quebec, for instance, corn area fell by nearly 14 percent and soybean area increased by 32 percent from the previous year. Yield for 2008/09 is estimated at 2.68 tons per hectare, up 16 percent from 2007/08, and benefited from generally good weather in the primary producing provinces. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent 202-720-0881.)
Record Production for Canadian Rapeseed
The USDA estimates record production and area for 2008/09 Canadian rapeseed. Production is estimated at 10.9 million tons, up 14 percent from a year ago, and area is forecast at 6.32 million hectares, up 2 percent from last year. The increase in planted area was driven in part by favorable prices for rapeseed. Growing conditions in the western provinces were nearly ideal, and significantly better than last year, when hot and dry weather placed stress on flowering rapeseed plants across the southern proportions of Canada’s western provinces and caused yields to drop below the 5-year average. In 2008, above-average rainfall and normal temperatures from June through the harvest season boosted yield to a near-record 1.72 tons per hectare, up 13 percent from a year ago. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent 202-720-0881.)
Further Reading
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October 2008
